It appears our UCP friends have left it to the last moment to drop the fiscal update and financial accounts on the Opposition NDP who will debate the documents tomorrow.. It could be cynicism or it could be the UCP Cabinet and Caucus still have not agreed among themselves how to position the past year’s financial accounts- blaming the NDP- or how do we preach fiscal austerity in a sea of red ink, and how do you budget credibly to a balanced budget in 22-23 or 23-24? How can you make the numbers add up, even with glowing expectations of energy and other investment pouring into the province? The latter point may not be seen as credible by the rating agencies. In reality for the next two years, Alberta, will be a net taker from Confederation, not leading the country in economic growth and driving Canada’s economy.
The update will have many eyes reading the finer details such as the economic assumptions, the amounts to be borrowed, and the interest rate and oil price assumptions. The political rhetoric around the reports will have to address the lay public, including the party base. So look for language about living within one’s own means, keeping taxes low, and, possibly, pay cuts for public servants. There must be a path to balance to satisfy rating agencies and institutional investors who buy Alberta bonds.
Let’s wait and see.
Posted 10:44 a.m. 26 August 2020.
Abpolecon.ca will look at the Update and financial accounts over the next week. A “post-mortem” on the Fiscal Update sponsored by ESNA, the Parkland Institute, and the M.A> in Policy Studies at UofA will take place in September.