It was a challenging week for UCP leader Jason Kenney. Kenney has battled questions about his knowledge of alleged arrangements made between members of his staff and those staffers supporting the run of Jeff Callaway. This has been especially trying for Kenney who continued to roll out major platform pledges. In addition, two UCP candidates have resigned due to past social media posts.
Source: Facebook
Meanwhile, Premier Rachel Notley used the fraught UCP leadership fight as a cudgel to attack Kenney’s credibility and trust-worthiness to hold office. Ms. Notley is the NDP’s greatest asset and election literature relegates the NDP’s logo and font to miniscule dimensions compared to her name or the constituency candidate’s name. The incumbent is running against the challenger who is viewed by many as the Premier in waiting. Notley obviously relishes being the underdog as she was in 2015.
Source: Twitter
What is different in 2015 is that big money has been taken out of Alberta politics. For years, the Tories had been funded by big corporations and wealthy party insiders. The NDP’s first Bill took away the capacity for corporations and unions to donate to political parties. Although the UCP is well ahead in fund-raising, the NDP has been relentlessly fund-raising and has also upped its game in staging campaign events and managing the media. In addition, ministers and the Premier have been all around the province announcing new programs and infrastructure investments. After nearly four years in office, some of the new buildings are evident. Still this branding of operating and capital spending may not be enough.
As Keith Gerein, the Edmonton Journal’s provincial affairs columnist opined this week, the NDP basically starts out down 35 seats. While I might quibble with the number, the rural and “rurban” distribution of seats heavily favours the United Conservatives. DUring their four-year term, the NDP had a chance to effect a very major redistribution of seats by reducing significantly the number of rural ridings but choose to be cautious. Courts have deferred to legislatures on the question of one-person-one-vote concept versus the need to accommodate Alberta’s geographically sparse population.
With 87 seats being fought for- if the NDP only is contestable in 50 to 60 seats then it will be very difficult to win a second majority government- but not impossible.
Source: Albertaparty.ca
Looking at the Alberta Elections’ website Calgary has 26 ridings and metro Edmonton 20 ridings with the rest of the province containing the other 41 ridings. Of these 41 ridings, 19 arguably are suburban or “rurban” where the NDP holds seats in Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Sherwood Park and Lethbridge. Notley’s strategists will need to quickly identify 25 seats outside metro Edmonton to concentrate their firepower.
For Kenney, a key consideration will be ensuring his inner circle are not distracted by their involvement in the RCMP investigation and that their core supporters do not become demotivated. As the Premier in waiting for much of the past year, and so close to the prize, every effort is needed to keep positive and stay focussed on the message. The central UCP message is the NDP are incompetent economic managers. How Kenney’s message on linking Notley with the Trudeau Liberals will appeal to undecided voters remains to be seen. Kenney seems to fuss more about matters outside provincial jurisdiction such as votes on equalization or paroling of federal prisoners.
Another challenge facing the UCP is whether the Callaway controversy and Brian Jean’s re-emergence will split the vote on the right. Jean, the erstwhile leader of the Wildrose, may prove to be a spoiler in the most important campaign of them all.
According to Elections Alberta there are 13 registered political parties including the Alberta Advantage Party, the Alberta Independence Party, the Freedom Conservative Party of Alberta, and the Pro-Life Alberta Political Association. In addition, Reserved party names include Alberta Freedom Alliance and Alberta Nation. The potential for splinter on the right seems to be greater than the split on the left. The Alberta Party led by former Edmonton Mayor Stephen Mandel has not attracted big names. Furthermore, their organizational capacity outside Edmonton is in question. Alberta Liberal party David Kahn will be fortunate to win in the heavily contested battlefield of Calgary Mountainview where he is battling Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley.
At this stage, the race is Kenney’s to lose.