Originally posted 26 March 2018
In a very unscientific reading of the budget the following words or phrases were repeated:
| affordable 33 |
| agriculture 50 |
| contained 5 |
| credible 0 |
| credit rating 1 |
| David Dodge 5 |
| diversification 23 |
| efficiency 13 (both energy and waste) |
| energy 101 |
| federally-imposed carbon price 4 |
| federally-imposed 5 |
| gender 13 |
| innovation 18 |
| investing 14 |
| investors 4 |
| oil sands 25 |
| pipelines 10 |
| predictable 5 |
| protect 30 |
| prudent 5 |
| robust 3 |
| significant progress 3 |
| stable 20 |
| successful 5 |
| surge 10 |
| waste 7 |
Word choice or selection matters when communicating government policy direction, especially fiscal policy.
The table above illustrates that the word energy was used over 100 times in the 169-page fiscal plan entitled A recovery built to last on Thursday.
Not surprisingly the word “energy” showed up about one hundred times, followed by agriculture about 50 times. Both agriculture and energy are found in the names of key departments of government. Their presence also signals their pecking order in the Alberta economy. Pipelines also put in credible appearances.
“Affordable” showed up many times denoting a concern by this government on making public goods such as drugs affordable as well as housing. This recurs often in the context of seniors, day care, or those on social assistance. An associated word that forms one of the three pillars of this budget is “protect,” including protecting and protection- a key theme for this government..
Other popular words associated with the economy were “innovation,” “diversification,” “surge,” and “robust.” Words used to connote control over spending include “prudent,” “contain,” “efficiency,” and “waste.” Popular words describing the merits of spending include: “stable,” “predictable,” and “investing.”
A key target audience for Alberta budgets are investors and rating agencies who buy Alberta debt or rate the credit-worthiness of the government. These investors prefer words like investors (4), conservative assumptions (0), credible (0), prudence (5), or restraint (4). [The frequency of the word gender would likely leave some analysts scratching their heads.] These readers will likely
be disappointed. In an unusually harsh press release entitled “Alberta 2018 Budget : A Balanced Budget Still a Pipeline Dream,” DBRS blasted the government for continuing to rely “on a sustained economic recovery, rising oil prices and additional pipeline capacity to drive the improvement in the bottom line.” Moodys’ Investors Services saw the budget as a “credit negative”. The agency opined:
Much of the improvement comes in the outer years of the forecast and depends greatly on rising resource royalties and increased oil export capacity. Moreover, budget contingencies are absent after 2020–21, which further reduces flexibility within the fiscal plan to absorb shocks without affecting the bottom line.
Finally the term federally -imposed carbon tax was a useful turn of phrase signifying that the Alberta-led Climate Leadership Plan which incorporated a broad-based carbon tax is now an imposition by federal politicians who have essentially abandoned Alberta’s initiative to use social license as a means to move increasing quantities of bitumen offshore. Expect to see more of that positioning in the coming months.
See also commentary on CBC website