AB Pol Econ

23Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Premier Smith threatens national unity crisis- it’s about distraction

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. I would like to hear what you think. It has been a busy week since Mark Carney was elected Liberal Party leader and formed a government. Danielle Smith has used Carney’s recent and rapid rise as Liberal leader to set out conditions (see below) for either the new Liberal PM or a future CPC leader, Pierre Poilievre to meet. All of these demands are rooted in the goals of the oil and gas industry or the Take-Back-Alberta activists now controlling the United Conservative Party. Last week I canvassed Smith’s fusillade at newly sworn in PM Carney of 14 March. This past week she has continued her campaign to force federal political leaders to come on board to in effect ...

17Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Events, Uncategorized

Public Interest Alberta- Conference: Community in Perilous Times: 27-28 March 2025

When: Thursday, 27 March 7:30-7:30 p.m. Friday 28 March 8:00-7:30 p.m. Where: Barnett House 11010 142 St NW, Edmonton, AB T5N 2R1, Canada Building community power is the only way we are going to build the Alberta we all want and deserve. These days we can all feel it. We live in perilous times and there are no silver bullet solutions in the fight back. From rampant attacks on healthcare, education, and social services to relentless cuts and privatization, things are getting harder and harder for everyday Albertans. Our right wing populist government targets the very institutions and services that make our province work and blames vulnerable communities for the mess they’ve created. It’s an effective strategy that needs a better response from all of us. And ...

Smith pivots- her new scapegoat is Mark Carney

17Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Energy, Environment, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research, Politics

Smith pivots- her new scapegoat is Mark Carney

Note to readers: The comments section below is now functioning. Please feel free to comment on any of my scribbling. Alberta governments have a history of painting the federal government as a malevolent force. An early and legitimate beef was the lack of control and ownership of natural resources which wasn't rectified until 1930. Readers are familiar with the rise of the Social Credit movement and its five year fight over banking with the Dominion government. The most recent fight since today's skirmishes was the battle over provincial government power over the setting of resource pricing, commonly known as the National Energy Program, It is a canon of Alberta political science that successful premiers fight Ottawa. For an excellent note on western alienation/separatism...

3Mar

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Budget, Capital Spending, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Alberta Budget 2025- deficits return

On 27 February Treasury Board President and Minister of Finance Nate Horner tabled the budget for the fiscal year 2025-26 and as required by law the budget sets out targets for fiscal years 2026-27 and 2027-28. I was privileged to be the guest of NDP MLA for Edmonton-Goldbar, Marlin Schmidt. For over 40-years I have been able to attend budget addresses, work on about 10 budgets while at the Treasury department, and attend half a dozen budget lock-ups while at ATB Financial and the Institute for Public Economics. I have watched the performance of many finance ministers under 9 premiers (excluding the caretaker David Hancock). I note that no finance minister over these 40-years has ever become premier. Notable were Jim Dinning, Doug Horner, Ted Morton, and Travis Toews’ challenges for t...

23Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

ATB, Budget, Capital Spending, Fiscal History, Government Finances, Opinion/Research, Politics

Budget 2025- Matters to watch for

The budget on 27 February is watched very closely by the usual suspects which include think tanks, credit rating agencies, government lobbyists, and provincial agencies (e,g, Alberta Health Services), the education, health care sector and post secondary institutions). Oil prices As is customary the number that will be focused on is the assumption for bitumen prices and the value of the Canadian dollar. Analysts will also look at the forecast for the fiscal year ending at the end of March. A key consideration in the broader economic forecast is whether U.S. trade policy will cause a recession in this country and how Alberta’s fossil fuel exports will fare. Even with the Trans Mountain extension, most Alberta oil and natural gas flows to the United States. We can expect e...

Smith, LaGrange, Alberta public service face grave test

17Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Budget, Government Finances, Health, Opinion/Research, Politics

Smith, LaGrange, Alberta public service face grave test

Updated 18 February 2025 On 5 February 2025, Carrie Tait of the Globe and Mail broke the story of the dismissal of Athana Mentzelopoulos who was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Alberta Health Services (AHS). Since that date Ms. Mentzelapoulous has entered a statement of claim at the Court of King's Bench seeking: a. Judgment for pay in lieu of notice in the amount of $583,443.00, less applicable income tax; b. Judgment for bad faith, aggravated, and/or punitive damages, in the amount of $1,116,557.00; c. In the alternative, judgment for damages for breach of contract in the sum currently estimated at $1,700,000.00, less applicable income tax, being the balance of the compensation owed under the Employment Agreement, or such further and other amount as this Honourable Cou...

6Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Financial Institutions, Government Finances, Intergovernmental, Politics

C-387 and the Alberta Pension Plan- Response from Finance Canada

Background Last summer, I wrote the following letter to the then Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland. Edmonton, Alberta T6C 4R1 12 August 2024 The Honorable Chrystia Freeland, P.C., M.P. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Member for Parliament, Toronto University-Rosedale Ottawa, Ontario Canada K1A 0A6 Dear Ms. Freeland Re. Bill C-387 In the last sitting of the House of Commons, M.P. Heather McPherson, M.P. for Edmonton Strathcona tabled an important private member’s Bill C-387 which would limit the exclusive authority of the Minister responsible for administering the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and the Governor in Council from allowing a province to withdraw from the pension plan. This exclusive executive authority under sect...

5Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, ATB, Government Finances

ATB Financial to borrow up to $11-billion through the Alberta Government

Updated 28 February 2025 On 29 January, the provincial cabinet passed an Order in Council 010/2025 under sections 56, 57, and 58 of the Financial Administration Act to authorize the President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance “to make advances to or purchase securities of ATB Financial.” This Order rescinds three previous Orders. The advances may be in Canadian dollars or equivalent amount in other currencies. The maximum amount outstanding may not exceed $11-billion. At the end of September 2024 ATB had GOA advances of $3.583-billion which represented 6.3 per cent of total liabilities. There was no press release from the Alberta government or ATB Financial about the reason behind this huge increase in borrowing from the wholesale markets. It is difficult to speculat...

5Feb

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Agencies, Government Finances, Investment, Opinion/Research, Politics

“Alberta’s New Heritage Fund “

Updated 8 February 2025 On 5 February this post was originally published. I February 2025 the Standing Committee of the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund met to hear from the President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance, Nate Horner, his officials, and the Acting Chief Executive Officer of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation AIMCo, provide a high level overview of the new Heritage Fund. Secondly, the Committee received an update on the second quarter report of the Fund's performance. As a result of this testimony and questions and answers. some of the unanswered questions I had about the Fund "refresh" were clarified. I have made some changes from the original post which are highlighted in bold type. The transcript for the meeting has not been posted b...

19Jan

By Bob AscahNo Comments

Credit Ratings, Economic Data, Energy, Financial Institutions, Intergovernmental, Opinion/Research

Danielle Smith’s Pretext

Updated 20 January 2025. This is an opinion/prediction piece Economic and political winds favourable for Smith Danielle Smith has enjoyed a highly favourable economic backdrop in her first 27 months of her premiership. Oil prices have ranged from a monthly average price of $U.S. 69.95 in November 2024 to a monthly high average price of $85.64 in April 2024 (Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB). This favourable oil price environment has assisted Smith greatly on the fiscal side. In preparing for the May 2023 election, the province’s books were in surplus by a whopping $11.6-billion and the fiscal 2024-25 fiscal year surplus is estimated to be $4.6-billion. The surplus could go much higher with the weakness in the CAD. From October 2022 to December 2024, Alberta’s labour force grew from 2,5...